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Four weeks down the line, the saffron party stunned its political rivals in the southern state by getting Anil K Antony, son of veteran Congress leader and former Kerala Chief Minister A K Antony on board. Projecting him as one of its prominent minority faces in the southern state, the BJP now says many people from Christian and Muslim communities will join the party in the coming days as the political scenario in Kerala has changed dramatically.
However, the CPI(M) and the Congress counter it, saying Modi’s dreams of capturing power in ‘God’s Own Country’ will remain unfulfilled forever. For reaching anywhere close to the goals set by the Prime Minister, BJP knows well that they will have to have a different approach in Kerala, contrary to the ones they have adopted in the North Indian states, and are now trying hard to make inroads into the SC/ST and OBC communities apart from focusing on minorities.
”BJP is growing in Kerala election after election,” Dr Sajad Ibrahim, a well-known psephologist, and professor of Political Science, at Kerala University said. But, he is quick to add that Kerala with almost half of its electorate belonging to minorities will hold BJP back from making any significant gains. He also pointed out the inability of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), to rope any major political party into the alliance in Kerala, which is also a major reason for the BJP not winning anything in Kerala.
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However, a change in the character of the general electorate is keeping the hopes of the BJP alive. As per the post-election surveys conducted by psephologists in Kerala, there has been a considerable reduction in the percentage of committed voters for both LDF and UDF. ”During the 2000s, each party like Congress and CPI(M) had about 25 to 30 percent of committed voters. But recently, during the 20116-2021 elections, we noted that there has been a decline in the committed voter percentage. It has now come down to 15 to 20 percent,” Sajad Ibrahim said. He said the issue of declining committed voters is more severe in Congress, while CPM also suffers from it.
”Voters are becoming more neutral and are moving away from ideologies,” Sajad said. BJP, which is focusing more on getting to the 5,000 to 8,000 votes that decides the results in an Assembly constituency, is pinning its hope on this neutral voter base. CPI(M), however, thinks that the numbers may look small but are very difficult to gather.
”The margin between LDF and UDF has never been more than, in the whole state, 1 lakh or two lakh votes. Three lakh votes difference would be a thumping victory,” Isaac said. He said the margin between LDF and UDF is narrow and it is very difficult for a third front to garner that thin difference. MM Hassan, convenor of the United Democratic Front (UDF), also backs up Isaac in this theory. ”When the margin between the LDF and UDF is so thin and when both strong political fronts are battling each other, where is the chance for BJP to win anything?” MM Hassan asked. Hassan told PTI that the UDF is aware of BJP’s efforts to lure minorities into their fold, especially Christians.
”They are trying to lure Christians by talking to the church leaders and all. But Christians in Kerala know well that the same BJP is attacking Christians in other parts of the country” Hassan, a veteran Congress leader pointed out. But for George Kurien, the double engine development strategy of the Modi government can win over the hearts of the youngsters and the party’s strategy to popularise these schemes to the people of Kerala will reap rich benefits for the party.
”Anil K Antony is just the beginning,” Kurien said, adding that many more will be joining the BJP in the coming days. The saffron party had already got onboard some prominent faces from the minority communities like former MP A P Abdulla Kutty and Alphonse Kannanthanam, a former Left MLA.