BJP hopes to clip Oppn resurgence and win all bypoll seats in UP, political experts say not easy

Following a setback in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has vowed to win all 10 assembly seats, where by-elections are to be held, underlining its dominance in the state and sending a message to the Opposition that its recent resurgence was short-lived.

 

Political observers, however, say it could be an uphill task for the ruling NDA alliance.

 

Bypolls are to be held on 10 seats that fell vacant after nine MLAs were elected as MPs in this year’s Lok Sabha elections and the MLA of Sishamau was convicted and given a seven-year jail sentence. However, the dates for the polls have not been announced yet.

 

“Let us all pledge that we will achieve 100 per cent victory in the upcoming by-elections on 10 assembly seats,” BJP’s UP unit president Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary exhorted party workers at the party’s state working committee meeting held on July 14.

 

Since then the BJP organisation has been making extensive preparations for all 10 seats, including at the booth level, with ministers and party office-bearers assigned the responsibility of one assembly constituency each.

 

BJP state vice-president and Legislative Council member Vijay Bahadur Pathak told PTI that even though the by-election dates have not been decided, “the party has started extensive preparations.” BJP and its allies will together win all the 10 seats, asserted Pathak, who is involved in the party’s election management.

 

This won’t be easy, political analysts say pointing to the results of the last elections, wrangling for tickets among alliance partners and reported infighting in the party’s state unit.

 

“Looking at the outcome of the 2022 assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha election results, BJP’s resolution of victory on all 10 seats is very challenging,” political analyst and retired professor of Lucknow University, Dr Rajesh Mishra, told PTI.

 

“The political and social equations of the seats for by-elections are such that there will be a challenge for the BJP on many seats. If there was a problem in the recent Lok Sabha elections, then the BJP will have even more problems in the assembly by-elections,” Mishra said.

 

In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 33 seats — a massive drop from the 62 it had won in 2019. Its allies RLD and Apna Dal (S) managed three more seats taking the alliance tally to 36.

 

The state’s main opposition party Samajwadi Party (SP), meanwhile, won 37 seats, the Congress won six and another seat was won by Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram.

 

Two years before, in the assembly polls, the BJP had won comfortably.

 

Among the seats that are going to bypolls, the BJP had given the Majhava and Katehari tickets to its ally Nishad Party and fielded its own candidate in Karhal, Milkipur, Kundarki, Khair, Ghaziabad, Meerapur, Phulpur and Sisamau.

 

Of these, the Nishad Party won in Majhava but lost in Katehari. Out of the eight seats the BJP contested, it won only three — Khair, Ghaziabad and Phulpur seats.

 

The remaining five seats were won by the SP, while one seat was won by the RLD, which was with the opposition at the time. It switched to the ruling alliance ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.

 

In the 2022 elections, the BJP candidate in Phulpur won by a margin of less than three thousand votes against his nearest rival from the SP, while the BJP won with a comfortable margin in Khair and Ghaziabad.

 

In Karhal and Kundarki, however, the SP won by huge margins.

 

Seats like Milkipur, Sishamau, Katehari and Meerapur are also tough seats for the BJP, political experts say.

 

Milkipur (Ayodhya) seat has fallen vacant after SP’s Awadhesh Prasad was elected as MP from Faizabad (Ayodhya) parliamentary seat and Karhal (Mainpuri) seat has fallen vacant after SP chief Akhilesh Yadav was elected as MP from Kannauj. BJP is keen on both these seats.

 

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath recently addressed a meeting of BJP workers and leaders of the Milkipur assembly constituency during a trip to Ayodhya.

 

On Saturday, Adityanath visited the Katehari assembly constituency of neighbouring district Ambedkar Nagar. He is scheduled to visit all the by-election constituencies.

 

The party has also put in all its weight in Karhal and many leaders and ministers, including Deputy Chief Minister Brajesh Pathak, are active in constituencies.

 

A BJP leader said that the party wants to win these seats and end the string of defeats there in past elections.

 

Social activist Ramprakash Yadav said the BJP state unit’s infighting could also be a problem for the party. “The internal strife within the BJP and the pressure of the allies for seat sharing is not creating the desired atmosphere,” he said.

 

The SP is, however, sticking to its PDA (Backward, Dalit and Minority) formula for the elections, he said.

 

Allies of the BJP have started lobbying tickets in the by-elections. On the occasion of the ninth foundation day of NDA ally Nishad Party, the party’s national president and UP fisheries minister Sanjay Nishad announced that the party had contested on its election symbol in Katehari (Ambedkar Nagar district) and Majhawan (Mirzapur district) seats in the 2022 assembly elections, and in the upcoming bypolls too, it will contest both seats.

 

The RLD has also intensified its demand for two seats. A RLD leader said that the party had won the Meerapur seat in 2022 and the party wants one more seat in the west.

 

Apna Dal (S) also wants to field its candidates in the bypolls. Party spokesperson Rajesh Srivastava told PTI that if the party gets a chance to contest the elections they will surely win.

 

The Election Commission has said that the by-election dates have not been decided yet due to bad weather and natural disasters, and as soon as the situation improves, elections will be held within six months.

 

According to the website, at present, in the 403-member UP Assembly, the Bharatiya Janata Party has 251 MLAs, its ally Apna Dal (S) has 13, Rashtriya Lok Dal has eight, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) has six and Nishad Party has five MLAs.

 

Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party has 105 MLAs, Congress has two, Jansatta Dal (Democratic) has two and Bahujan Samaj Party has one MLA.