Covid-19 second wave to taper off by July end, 3rd wave after 6 months: Govt panel

The second wave of coronavirus in India is expected to taper off by July this year while a third wave is likely to hit the country in another six to eight months, according to a India Today report.

A three-member panel of scientists, set up by the Centre made these projections using a mathematical model known as the SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and Removed Approach), which came into existence last year to study the trajectory of Covid.

The predictions made using the model had estimated around 1.5 lakh cases per day by the end of May and the end of June will witness 20,000 cases on a daily basis.

India’s massive surge in Covid-19 cases has shown signs of abating in recent days. Several states are reporting lower daily case numbers and the positivity rate going down steadily in the past few days.

Professor Manindra Agarwal from IIT Kanpur and a member of the panel informed that states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Kerala, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Haryana, besides Delhi and Goa, have already seen their peak. The model suggests that some states namely Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab are yet to witness a peak.

He further added that there will not be a third wave till October 2021. The third wave would likely be localised and people will be less affected after the vaccination.

The committee was upfront in accepting its inability to predict the nature of the second wave in the country. “We were very optimistic when we said the second wave will see 1.5 lakh cases daily. We were wrong,” said Professor Mathukumalli Vidyasagar from IIT Hyderabad, who heads the panel.