Kalyana Karnataka may not be a cakewalk for the BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections

The BJP which had won all five seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in the Kalyana Karnataka region, comprising seven districts, may not find it a cakewalk in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, given the rise of the Congress in 2023 assembly election.

The Kalyana Karnataka region or erstwhile Hyderabad Karnataka region has five Lok Sabha seats – Bidar, Gulbarga, Raichur, Bellary and Koppal.

The BJP has once again fielded Umesh Jadhav from Gulbarga (Kalaburagi) and Bhagwant Khuba. This time it has also fielded former Karnataka minister B Sriramulu from Bellary and Dr Basavaraj Kyavator from Koppal. The party has not yet announced its candidate from Raichur.

The Congress has is yet to announce its candidates for these five Lok Sabha seats. The announcement is expected on March 20.

If the assembly polls are any indication of the party’s performance in the Lok Sabha election, then in 2018 assembly elections, the BJP had won 17 seats while Congress bagged 19. The JD(S) too won in four places from here.

However, in the 2023 assembly election, the Congress substantially improved its position by winning 26 seats, while the BJP got 10 seats. The JD(S) secured two seats while two others too won from the region.

The popularity of the saffron party had been depleted substantially in 2023 compared to its performance in the 2018 assembly election.

In the 2023 assembly polls, the Congress fared well in Ballari (all five seats), Raichur (four out of seven), Yadgir (three out of four), Vijayanagara (two out of four) and Koppal (three out of five). While Bidar backed the BJP in 2023 by giving it four out of six assembly seats, Kalaburagi (erstwhile Gulbarga) stood by its son of the soil Congress national president Mallikarjun Kharge by handing the grand old party seven out of nine seats.

In the 2018 assembly election, the BJP emerged as the single largest party. While the Modi wave swept through the country in 2019, the poor show of the coalition government of Congress and JD(S) put the saffron party in an advantageous position, and it won 25 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats.

When the BJP returned to power for the second consecutive time in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the 16-month-old coalition government of Congress and the JD(S) collapsed in June 2019 and the BJP came to power in Karnataka. It ruled the state for about four years.

The BJP could not maintain its popularity graph in 2023 and its effect is evident in the Kalyana Karnataka region as well.

It has to be seen how the saffron party could regain its position in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.