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Village Antarwali Sarati, where activist Manoj Jarange has led protests demanding quota for the Maratha community in education and government jobs, is a part of the constituency in the state’s Marathwada region.
Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) has fielded three-term MLA and former health minister Rajesh Tope against Hikmat Udhan of Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde for the November 20 polls. Sena is a constituent of the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition, while NCP (SP) is part of the opposition front Maha Vikas Aghadi.
However, two influential independents – BJP rebel Satish Ghadge and former Sena (UBT) legislator Shivaji Chothe – have muddied the political landscape here.
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According to political analysts, Tope appears to support Jarange, suggesting a tacit alliance, while the activist has refrained from criticising him and his party leaders.
As per a government report, OBCs constitute about 38 per cent of the electorate in the constituency. While the community could significantly influence the election outcome, OBC activist Rajendra Rakh pointed to challenges in keeping the group united.
“The OBC is not a single caste but a collection of groups lacking cohesive voting patterns, which prevents a unified stance behind any one candidate,” he said.
Marathas also have a sizeable presence in Ghansawangi, accounting for about 32 per cent of the voters. A political observer said their votes might get split considering that Tope, Udhan and Ghadge are all Marathas.
Despite facing anti-incumbency, Tope might still benefit from the division of votes among his challengers, he said.
Udhan, who previously lost to Tope twice including a narrow defeat by 3,409 votes in 2019, is determined to close the gap and win the seat this time, while Chothe, being a Teli, is banking on OBC support, said the poll observer.
Ghadge, the chairman of a local sugar factory, entered the fray as an independent after failing to secure a ticket from the BJP. He has been expelled from the party. He hopes to leverage his longstanding work in the constituency, the political analyst said.
In the 2019 parliamentary elections, the BJP won all the Lok Sabha seats in the Marathwada region, which emerged as the ground zero of Maratha protests steered by Jarange over the last two years.
Five years later, the general elections witnessed a significant division of votes in the region, a factor believed to have contributed to the narrow defeat of the OBC leader of BJP, Pankaja Munde, from Beed.