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Over half of its districts have received below-normal rainfall since June. Of the 75 districts of Uttar Pradesh, 37 have received deficient rainfall so far and seven witnessed excess, while 31 districts mostly in the central and eastern parts received normal rains, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data.
The state’s western, Rohilkhand, and central regions have been particularly impacted by this erratic monsoon pattern.
Shamli, in western Uttar Pradesh, is the hardest hit, recording only 20.2 per cent of its normal rainfall. Farmers in the district are struggling with stunted crop growth due to insufficient rains, according to marginal paddy farmer Muqeem Khan.
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Known for its superior paddy crops, Shamli has received just 90.8 mm of rainfall of the normal 448.4 mm so far this year. According to the IMD calendar, the southwest monsoon season begins on June 1 and ends on September 30.
Not just less rainfall but even rainfall on fewer days also affects Kharif farmers. These changes particularly harm water-intensive crops like paddy.
Gautam Buddh Nagar, Amroha, Fatehpur and Jaunpur have also faced significant deficits.
“I planted paddy in the first week of July. Due to the lack of rain, we were forced to use tube wells. But there has been no rainfall and I cannot afford to pay to cultivate my farm using groundwater only,” laments paddy farmer Nakul Pal in Amroha.
Pal (65), who takes farmland on lease for cultivation, said, “I have been cultivating paddy since I was a teenager, but the monsoon season has become erratic over the last few years.” IMD data shows Gautam Buddh Nagar district has received just 20.9 per cent of its normal rainfall so far, followed by Amroha at 40.6 per cent, Kushinagar at 41.3 per cent, Chandauli at 43.1 per cent, Fatehpur at 43.6 per cent, Saharanpur at 43.7 per cent, Jaunpur at 46 per cent and Amethi at 48.4 per cent.
Climate scientists attribute this imbalance to a weaker southeastern monsoon, influenced by western disturbances.
Sumit Singh Vyas, a climate scientist and former adviser to the Union agriculture ministry, said a belt of low-pressure zone caused partially by western disturbances has affected the progression of the normal monsoon. “This leads to unequal and sudden changes in the monsoon pattern,” he added.
Vyas said these changes cause both delays in monsoon and a decrease in the frequency of the monsoon. “This leads to the delayed start of the monsoon season and rainfall on fewer days during the season,” he explained.
As per IMD data of the last 12 weeks of the monsoon season, western Uttar Pradesh saw only two weeks of normal rainfall.
“The change in frequency of rain leads to very heavy rains on a few days and almost no rain on others. So a region may get the amount of rain it usually gets over a week on a single day. Such rain events cause additional harm to crops and may also lead to natural disasters,” Vyas added.
Even in the districts that saw relatively normal rainfall, the irregular patterns of downpours have made it difficult for farmers to plan their agricultural activities.
BJP MLA and Minister of State for Agriculture Education and Research Baldev Singh Aulakh said farmers have already approached him with the issue.
“Farmers in the paddy-growing Terai belt have been affected by the lack of rains. Some farmer groups have also approached me for assistance,” Aulakh said, adding that he has assured them of all possible support from the state government in case of farm losses.
The state as a whole has so far recorded 88.5 per cent of its normal rainfall. The districts that received excess rainfall are Auraiya (182.1 per cent), Balrampur (157.2 per cent), Etah (156.9 per cent), Basti (155.9 per cent), Firozabad (125.7 per cent), Bareilly (122.6 per cent) and Maharajganj (120.3 per cent).