Will BJP come to power in Delhi after over 25 years? A SWOT analysis

New Delhi: The BJP is making all-out attempts to come back to power in Delhi after over 25 years focussing on its slogan “Parivartan” (change) and a targeted campaign against the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP over corruption allegations.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi at ‘Parivartan Rally’ in Rohini last week made the party’s intentions clear giving the call “Aapda (AAP) nahi sahenge, badal kar rahenge” (won’t tolerate the disaster (AAP), will bring change”).

Here is a SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threat) analysis of the BJP.

STRENGTH: * Strong organisational presence up to booth level in all 70 assembly segments. The party held thousands of small reach-out meetings with targeted groups and communities paying focus on slums and unauthorised colonies months ahead of polls.

*A sustained campaign for change in public perception by highlighting corruption issues like “Sheesh Mahal” and liquor scam” that forced Arvind Kejriwal to step down as Delhi chief minister. Effectively raising civic issues like water scarcity, supply of polluted water, air pollution, waterlogging during rains, damaged roads, poor public bus transport.

*A general anti-incumbency against the AAP ruling in Delhi since 2015, especially against its MLAs. The BJP sought to take advantage of this weak point of the AAP issuing ‘charge sheets’ that listed failures of its MLAs in various constituencies.

*The BJP managed to retain all the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi for the third time in a row, in the parliamentary polls held last May. The BJP candidates also got more votes than those of AAP in 52 out of 70 assembly segments divided among seven Lok Sabha seats.

WEAKNESS: *The BJP has been unable to project a local leader to challenge Kejriwal as chief ministerial candidate. The party has announced only 29 candidates so far and 41 others are yet to be declared although the polls will be held on February 5.

*The BJP has so far failed to come up with announcements to tackle AAP’s promises like honorarium to women and priests. Prime Minister Modi has, however, assured that public welfare schemes of the current government will continue.

*The BJP has a poor record of victory in 12 reserved and 8 minority-dominated seats. The party failed to win even one of these seats in 2015 and 2020 assembly polls.

OPPORTUNITIES: *Party leaders believe the BJP is in best shape to end its dry run of over 25 years in Delhi because of dent in Kejriwal’s image due to corruption charges and problems faced by people under AAP rule.

*The BJP is in a position to defeat the AAP in Delhi ending its over-a-decade-long political dominance and diminish Kejriwal who has emerged as a challenged to the party at national level.

*The BJP may deepen its political roots in Delhi if it comes to power, backed by its government at the Centre.

THREAT: *The BJP has an uphill task against the AAP which has a strong support base in the slums, unauthorised colonies, minority-dominated areas, lower middle class localities.

*The BJP has so far fielded 8 outsiders who switched to the party from AAP and Congress and some more could get tickets as 41 candidates are yet to be announced. Some party leaders claim dissent among local BJP leaders and workers in such constituencies.