GDP estimates: Industries showing signs of recovery, says Niti VC

Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar on Friday said industries are showing signs of recovery and fiscal measures announced by the government are projected to offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Kumar was commenting on the first advance estimates (AE) of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Thursday, which projected 7.7 per cent contraction in GDP for the current fiscal year.

“While the first advanced estimates report a contraction of -7.7%, industries, both contact-intensive & non-contact, are showing signs of recovery. “Fiscal measures are projected to off-set the impact of the pandemic thereby, attain a real GDP of Rs 134.40 lakh crore in 2020-21,” Kumar said in a tweet. As per the GDP estimates, all sectors are expected to post a contraction for the full fiscal, except agriculture.

“Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of Rs 134.40 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2019-20 of Rs 145.66 lakh crore… “The growth in real GDP during 2020-21 is estimated at -7.7 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 4.2 per cent in 2019-20,” the NSO had said in a statement. In the current fiscal, manufacturing sector is likely to see a contraction 9.4 per cent whereas growth was almost flat at 0.03 per cent in the year-ago period.

The NSO estimates significant contraction in ‘mining and quarrying’, and ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’. Agriculture sector is estimated to see a growth of 3.4 per cent in 2020-21. However, it will be lower than 4 per cent growth recorded in 2019-20

The economy contracted 23.9 per cent in the first quarter and 7.5 per cent in the second quarter due to the COVID-19 crisis.