Global cues, FII activity to guide stock markets in holiday-shortened week: Analysts

Stock markets would be driven by global trends and foreign investors’ trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said adding that key equity indices may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday.

This week markets will have just three trading sessions. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Holi and on Friday for Good Friday.

“This week will be shorter due to market closure on both Monday for Holi and Friday for Good Friday. As a result, trading volumes may be lower with limited market cues. However, volatility remains a possibility as we approach the March F&O expiry and the financial year-end,” Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.

Last week, the BSE benchmark climbed 188.51 points or 0.25 per cent, and the Nifty went up by 73.4 points or 0.33 per cent.

“This week being a truncated week and the derivatives’ monthly expiry, we might see some volatility while Nifty is likely to consolidate at higher levels. Also, the US GDP data and other key economic data would keep investors busy,” Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said.

Movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also be watched by investors.

The rupee depreciated 48 paise to settle at an all-time low of 83.61 against the American currency on Friday, tracking a surging greenback against major crosses in the overseas markets and weak Asian peers.The rupee had earlier recorded its lowest closing level of 83.40 on December 13, 2023.

Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd, said foreign institutional investors offloading shares coupled with a sharp fall in the currency level has been indicating that the road ahead for equity markets could be bumpy.

“This week is a holiday-shortened one and we expect volatility to remain high due to the scheduled expiry of March month derivatives contracts. Besides, participants will continue to take cues from the global indices, especially the US markets, which are moving from strength to strength with every passing week,” Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said.