Nasscom sees flat growth in FY19 IT exports

Hyderabad: For the second consecutive year, software industry lobby Nasscom has projected a flat export growth in FY19 at 7-9% growth — marginally higher than 7.8% that the industry likely to close FY18 with — and has nearly halved its hiring projection to about one lakh.

Nasscom president R Chandrashekhar on Tuesday said software exports are expected to touch $167 billion this fiscal year, accounting for 24% of the country’s exports.

“Fiscal 2018 began on a muted note, but driven by a better growth in the second half, it is expected to clock revenue of $167 billion, representing a growth of 7.8% for export revenue and 10% in domestic revenue.

“In terms of export revenue, we expect a growth rate of 7-9% in FY19. As I said earlier, we expect the change to be in positive. This is the probable band in which it will happen. We also expect a slight upswing in domestic revenue at 10-12% in FY19,” Chandrashekhar told reporters at the annual Nassocom leadership forum

For the outgoing year, domestic revenue is seen closing with a 10.1% growth at $26 billion, which is increasingly driven by enterprise digital adoption which is at different level of maturity and scope, he added.

For FY19, domestic revenue is expected to be $28-29 billion, while export revenue is seen at $137 billion against $126 billion in FY18, Chandrashekhar explained.

Though the trends are positive, the industry body sees a”lag” in the broader economic upswing in the global economy and the American economy. However, during the later part of FY19 that would “kick in”.

On the hiring side, the Nasscom chief said the industry-wide hiring may be much lower at around 1 lakh in FY19. For the current fiscal, the association had pegged hiring 1.3-1.5 lakh. However, he was quick to add that FY18 may close finally with a net hiring of 30,000-50,000 lesser at one lakh. “We see hiring patterns while industry continues to be a major hirer, this year also despite all the headwinds we have seen nearly a one lakh plus jobs getting added.

“While it may not at the levels at which it was in the hay-day earlier in terms of employment, but we expect that those trends would continue going forward as well,” he said indicating that FY19 hiring would be about one lakh.

Last June, Nasscom had forecast a flat growth rate for FY18, after delaying the same by over four months. Normally the industry used to give out its annual forecast in February, which was delayed due to the Visa issues in the US and other global headwinds.