Plastic waste could double by 2050, researchers find, suggest policies to address issue

New Delhi: Plastic waste around the world could double by 2050, but policies — such as using recycled plastic, and investing in waste management — could cut plastic waste by more than 90 per cent and slash related emissions by a third, a new study has found.

The study, published in the journal Science, comes ahead of the signing of the United Nations (UN) Plastics Treaty — the world’s first legally binding treaty on plastic pollution.

Delegates from over 190 countries are scheduled to meet in Busan, Korea, from November 25-December 1 for the final set of negotiations, with the previous one having been held in April this year in Ottawa, Canada.

The study’s findings could provide a crucial blueprint for tackling the plastic crisis, researchers, including those from the University of California Santa Barbara, US, said.

The authors found that four policies are enough to reduce mismanaged plastic waste, thereby causing plastic pollution — mandate new products to be made with 40 per cent post-consumer recycled plastic, cap new plastic production at 2020 levels, invest significantly in plastic waste management and impose a fee on plastic packaging.

Plastic waste management includes landfills and waste collection services, the team said.

The authors also found that if current trends continue, greenhouse gas emissions related to plastics would jump 37 per cent from 2020 levels to 3.35 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2050.

“We employ machine learning to predict that, without intervention, annual mismanaged plastic waste will nearly double to 121 (metric tonnes) by 2050. Annual greenhouse gas emissions from the plastic system are projected to grow by 37 per cent to 3.35 (gigatonnes of carbon dioxide) equivalent over the same period,” the authors wrote.

“The United Nations plastic pollution treaty presents a unique opportunity to reshape these outcomes,” they wrote.

Plastic production has surged in recent decades. The resulting plastic waste breaks down into micro- and nano-plastics, which have been documented to damage ecosystems and heighten health risks, including those related to cancer, heart and reproduction.

Further, the life cycle of plastic — from the stages of extracting raw materials to disposal or recovery — is known to intensify climate change through emissions from oil, gas and coal, which are involved in all stages.

The disproportionate burden of plastic waste on the Global South and the frequency with which plastic facilities are located near marginalised communities have sparked pressing concerns related to environmental justice.

A UN resolution was passed in March 2022, which mandated the creation of a legally binding treaty to curb plastic pollution and address related issues.