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Population growth in the US already was stagnant over the past several years due to immigration restrictions and a dip in fertility, but COVID-19-related deaths exacerbated that lethargic-growth trend, said William Frey, a senior fellow at The Brooking Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program.
“I think it’s a first glimpse of where we may be heading as far as low population growth,” Frey said. “It’s telling you that this is having an impact on the population.”
The US population grew by 0.35 per cent from July 2019 to July 2020, an increase of 1.1 million people in a nation whose estimated population in July was more than 329 million residents, according to Census Bureau estimates.
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At the height of the Spanish flu, the growth rate from 1918 to 1919 was 0.49 per cent — even with US troops abroad during World War I.
The Northeast and Midwest regions of the US had tiny population declines from 2019 to 2020, while the South and West regions had slight increases.
Among the states, Idaho had the largest single-year population increase, growing 2.1 per cent to 1.8 million residents. It was followed by Arizona, which grew 1.8 per cent; Nevada, which increased by 1.5 per cent; Utah, which grew 1.4 per cent; and Texas, which increased by 1.3 per cent.
Sixteen states lost population, including California, the nation’s most populous state, which declined 0.18 per cent to 39.3 million residents.
New York — the pandemic’s epicentre in the spring — had the nation’s biggest decline, losing an estimated 126,000 residents, or a dip of 0.65 per cent. The Empire State has been losing residents since 2016, but the drop from 2019 to 2020 was significantly larger than in years past.
New York’s population decline was followed by Illinois, with a 0.63 per cent drop; Hawaii, with a 0.61 per cent decline; West Virginia, with a 0.58 per cent drop; and Mississippi, with a 0.38 per cent decline.
The estimates released Tuesday were conducted independently of the 2020 census, which is a headcount of every US resident, but they offer a preview of what the census may show once its data are finished being crunched.
The data from the once-a-decade census are used to determine how many congressional seats each state gets based on population, as well as the distribution of USD 1.5 trillion in federal funding.
The estimates show that California could lose a House seat for the first time in the state’s history, while Texas could gain three seats and Florida could gain two seats, according to an analysis by Frey.
Five others states — Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon — stand to gain one seat.
Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia stand to lose a seat, according to Frey.